SMM Review: Metal Production Sees Mixed Momentum in November 2025; December Output Expected to Strengthen
The Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) has released its monthly review of China’s metal production for November 2025, highlighting mixed performance across key base metals amid fluctuating demand, energy constraints, and shifting raw material costs. The report also offers an optimistic outlook for December, with several categories expected to record moderate production growth.
According to SMM’s assessment, copper cathode output rose slightly in November, supported by stable smelter operations and improved concentrate supply. However, maintenance shutdowns at select facilities capped further gains. December production is forecast to increase as maintenance cycles conclude and new capacity ramps up.
Aluminium production maintained steady growth, driven by strong operating rates in major producing regions. The easing of power rationing and high downstream demand — particularly from construction, packaging, and electric vehicles — contributed to the positive trend. SMM expects December aluminium output to remain robust, with some smelters planning marginal capacity additions.
Zinc production, however, declined in November due to smelter maintenance and tightness in high-grade ores. Despite this, the sector is likely to rebound in December as maintenance ends and ore supply gradually improves.
The nickel market showed a notable divergence: while nickel pig iron (NPI) output fell due to lower margins and environmental checks, refined nickel production increased after several smelters resumed operations. December forecasts indicate moderate recovery in NPI output, though full normalization may take longer.
In the lead sector, production dipped slightly as secondary lead smelters faced environmental inspections. SMM anticipates only a modest recovery in December due to continued regulatory pressure.
Overall, SMM’s analysis suggests that China’s metal industry is entering December with improving supply conditions, stable energy availability, and healthy downstream demand. Market participants expect the month to deliver stronger and more consistent output across most base metals, setting a positive tone for early 2026.