The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence is expected to drive a sharp rise in global copper demand, with consumption projected to increase by nearly 50% by 2040, according to analysis by S&P Global. The forecast underscores the growing pressure on copper supply chains as digital infrastructure and electrification accelerate worldwide.
S&P’s outlook highlights that AI-driven data centres, high-performance computing systems, and advanced semiconductor manufacturing are becoming major new sources of copper demand. These facilities require extensive electrical wiring, power distribution equipment, cooling systems, and grid connections, all of which are copper-intensive.
Beyond data centres, the AI boom is expected to amplify demand across the broader energy ecosystem. Upgrades to power grids, expansion of renewable energy capacity, and increased deployment of electric vehicles and charging infrastructure are all linked to AI-led optimisation and automation, further boosting copper usage.
According to the assessment, meeting future demand will be challenging due to long development timelines for new mines, declining ore grades, and rising capital costs. While recycling and efficiency gains may offset some pressure, S&P notes that secondary supply alone will not be sufficient to bridge the projected gap.
The report also points to geopolitical and regulatory risks that could constrain supply growth. Many of the world’s largest copper reserves are concentrated in a few regions, where permitting delays, environmental concerns, and community opposition can slow project approvals.
Industry experts say the projected surge in copper demand could support higher long-term prices and intensify competition for secure supply. This may prompt greater investment in exploration, mine expansion, and alternative technologies, including copper substitution in some applications.
S&P concludes that without timely investment and coordinated policy support, copper could emerge as a critical bottleneck for the global AI and energy transition, reshaping commodity markets over the next two decades.