We’re At War With Iran — Buy An EV To Avoid $6+ Gas Prices

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I woke up this morning here in New Mexico to the news that long-standing neoconservative hawk dreams finally came true: “Operation Epic Fury” is underway. The U.S. and Israel are officially trading massive blows with Iran, and Trump’s stated goal is regime change. The country is at war. Cue John McCain singing “Bomb Iran.”

If you read CleanTechnica regularly, you probably already understand the environmental and ethical insanity of another conflict in the Middle East. But right now, we need to talk about the brutal macroeconomic physics that are about to hit every American driver.

There is a very seductive narrative coming out of the regime right now: that these will be “surgical” strikes that “degrade capabilities” while supporting a popular uprising, paving the way for a swift, clean victory that will save democracy in the Middle East and cost the American public nothing.

I’m here to tell you that this is a fantasy.

Whether you support the current man who identifies as president or not, and regardless of how you feel about regime change in Tehran, the inescapable reality is that the era of cheap, predictable gasoline just ended. When you analyze the military and market mechanics on the ground, we are looking at a 60% to 70% probability of a severe, sustained global oil shock that will likely drive national gasoline averages past $6 a gallon.

If you are reading this and still driving a gas-powered vehicle, you are holding a live grenade in your wallet. Here is the cold, hard math on why it’s time to rethink your vehicle choices.

The Single Highway Exit Problem

To understand the likely energy crisis we face, you don’t need a degree in geopolitics. You just need to look at a map. Roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne oil trade has to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow, 21-mile-wide chokepoint between the Persian Gulf and the rest of the world’s oceans. Think of it as a single highway exit that serves an entire global economy.

The administration’s fantasy relies on everything going perfectly so that exit stays open. It won’t.

Iran’s military doctrine is based on asymmetric warfare. They know they cannot win a conventional battle against the U.S. Navy and Air Force. Their goal isn’t to “win.” Their goal is to inflict maximum economic chaos and outlast the political will of U.S. leadership. They know that with expensive fuel, Trump won’t have the power to do anything to them in about a year.

And they don’t need to physically close the strait to do it. The global oil market runs on maritime insurance. You cannot sail a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) containing millions of dollars of oil without coverage. As soon as Iran deploys even a few naval mines. or a handful of attack drones hit commercial tankers, the maritime insurance market will instantly self-destruct. Tankers will not sail into an uninsurable war zone without massive naval escorts, slowing the global flow of oil to a trickle.

The Math Behind That $6 Gas

When that bottleneck is choked, global panic takes over. The math here is well-established by economists: for every $10 increase in a barrel of crude oil, you pay roughly 25 cents more per gallon at the pump.

Before this morning, global crude was trading around $70 a barrel. In a “Wounded Bear” scenario where Iran survives the initial strikes and initiates a long-term, asymmetric shadow war involving mines and drones (which analysts assess as having a 45–50% probability), global crude will easily sustain a price of $130 to $140 a barrel as the “risk premium” becomes permanent.

Add that $60 or $70 surge to crude, do the 25-cents-per-gallon math, and you add $1.50 to $1.75 to whatever you were paying last week, and then watch the prices keep climbing as long as the conflict continues to disrupt oil trade.

Now, look at the other probable outcome: The “Sunk Cost” scenario (roughly 15–20% probability). This is where the initial airstrikes fail to induce regime change, the administration’s ego takes a hit, and “mission creep” spirals into a U.S. ground invasion. In a full ground war that physically destroys neighboring Saudi and Emirati production capability, crude prices would blow past $150 or even $180 a barrel.

When you combine the likelihood of these future outcomes, you are staring at a 60% to 70% probability of a sustained, catastrophic physical supply shock. You are locked into $6, $7, or even $8 gasoline for the foreseeable future.

To avoid this, a man known for having no restraint would have to grow up overnight, or everything would have to go perfectly for him (civilians somehow overthrow the Revolutionary Guard because some facilities got bombed).

The Era of Financial Self-Defense

This coming April, I’ll be hitting the road for my Charge To The Parks project. I’m doing a coast-to-coast run down Route 66 from LA to Chicago, and then continuing on to the Outer Banks. If I was attempting to drag my older travel trailer across the country with a diesel or gas truck right now, I’d be sweating bullets watching the news.

But I’m not. I’ll be pulling that trailer with my Chevy Silverado EV LT. Between the truck’s massive battery pack and the custom solar and battery setup I’ve been wiring into the trailer, the direct sting of a global oil shock is essentially removed from my travel math.

Picking up an EV is no longer just an environmental statement. It is a vital act of financial self-defense. Here is why an EV is the only logical move today:

The Domestic Shield. Petroleum accounts for less than 1% of U.S. utility-scale electricity generation. Sunshine, wind, natural gas, and nuclear power are domestic. When you drive an EV, you are breaking the geopolitical tether to the world’s most unstable region. The U.S. power grid doesn’t rely on oil tankers dodging mines in the Persian Gulf.

Price Predictability. Electricity rates are regulated and stable. They might slowly change year over year, but they do not spike by 30% overnight because of a drone attack halfway across the world. An EV turns your “fuel” cost into a predictable utility bill, not a volatile stock market ticket.

The Ultimate Exit Strategy. This is the best part: if you have solar panels on your roof (or your travel trailer), you are making your own fuel. You have completely decoupled your personal mobility from global conflict, corporate greed, and political folly.

We are looking at a fork in the road. On one path, you continue to gamble on volatile global politics, accepting that $6 or $7 gas is your new baseline while your disposable income evaporates. On the other path, you leverage domestic energy, insulate your wallet, and take back control.

The choice is yours, and by the time you read this, local new and used car dealers that sell EVs are probably open. If you don’t have one, get one.

Featured image: A screenshot from Toy Story (1995) via Yarn (Fair Use).