Renewables And Fossil Fuels In Times Of War

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The US/Israel war against Iran is upending energy and financial markets. The escalating attacks have reignited a longstanding debate: Is the combination of renewables and fossil fuels pragmatic as a broad national energy mix, or is it, more clearly, a threat to national security?

Last fall, President Xi Jinping announced at a United Nations climate summit that China would reduce its greenhouse gas emissions — carbon dioxide and other pollution — by at least 7% to 10% by 2035. With the backdrop of war in the Middle East, that decision now doesn’t seem so far-fetched. Xi also said China would increase the proportion of non-fossil fuels like solar, wind, and hydropower in its energy system to more than 30%.

It was the same summit at which President Donald J. Trump’s aversion to renewable energy was center stage. In his broadcast speech he denigrated the rapid construction of wind farms, solar arrays. and other renewable energy sources now in use in a range of countries. As recent extension of that theme, a central goal of Trump’s aggression against Iran has been to fortify the US position as a dominant petroleum producer while curtailing federal support for alternative energy.

Is the US “flying blind, captured by magical thinking,” as Stephanie T. Williams writes in a Brookings commentary?

Angst over Gas Prices Sparks Interest in all Kinds of Clean Energy

The dissatisfied murmurs grew when gasoline prices jumped overnight, and now the nationwide average cost of a gallon of gas has risen to $3.19, according to AAA data. Suddenly, my 2022 Tesla Model Y looks mighty appealing to neighbors as I brag about my minuscule home charging costs. With transportation responsible for 28% of greenhouse gas emissions in the US, and 57% of those emissions from light-duty vehicles such as passenger cars and pickup trucks, electric vehicles offer a lot of benefits and are poised for increased consumption during the US conflict in the Middle East.

Today, the lifetime climate footprint of an electric vehicle is smaller than that of any other type of car — no matter where it is driven in the US, as summarized by a study in the journal Environmental Science and Technology. On average across the country, gasoline-powered pickups have the greatest climate impact, with 486 grams of carbon dioxide emitted per mile. A hybrid pickup has 23% lower emissions, and a fully electric pickup is 75% lower. Electric sedans have the lowest overall emissions — at just 81 g CO2/mile on average.

Moreover, the US attack on Iran has incited the biggest disruption to oil and natural gas markets since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The attack on Iran, writes Laura Millan on Bloomberg, means that Qatar’s liquefied natural gas export facility and Saudi Arabia’s oil refinery are shut down. Tanker traffic through the crucial Strait of Hormuz is at a near standstill. These are just two examples of how a lengthy war against Iran has the potential to alter energy markets.

Already, natural gas prices in the US cost nearly 10% more than a year ago. With nearly half of all US homes heated with natural gas and a cold and snowy winter impacting much of the country, renewables are looking pretty good right now. Even for those who have ridiculed renewables as replacements for burning fossil fuels, solar panels, heat pumps, and other green technologies suddenly offer a certain allure.

Investors Weigh Renewables and Fossil Fuels

The attack on Iran has caused stock prices to tumble. However, several index funds that include shares of US clean energy companies rose Monday; Invesco’s WilderHill Clean Energy ETF rose 2.3% and beat the broader S&P 500.

This follows 2025 record-setting for US green energy generation, according to the EIA. Solar and wind remained the fastest-growing electricity source in the country. Renewables are accelerating beyond fossil fuel-power gains. The price tags of photovoltaic panels, wind turbines, and grid-scale batteries have decreased to the point where building new renewable capacity remains cheaper than alternatives. Nearly 80% of the power plant capacity planned over the next decade is tied to renewable sources.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies sees the current international state of energy affairs as one in which a new energy investment paradigm is taking shape. With fragmentation, volatility, and scarcity, report author Ray Cai writes, “A widening bifurcation between hydrocarbon and low-emission value chains—in part accelerated by strategic competition between the US and China—is already reshaping global energy investment flows.”

Cai forecasts that, in this emerging paradigm, efficiency, security, and competitiveness will continue to dominate decarbonization — “though this does not mean low-emission energy will lose out.” He continues by outlining the recent status and expected trajectory of renewables.

• In 2024, renewables and nuclear energy met nearly 80% of global demand growth.
• Wind and solar — the fastest-growing energy sources in history — accounted for 57% of the increase in electricity supply and over 90% of new grid capacity additions.
• In the US, co-located and stand-alone solar and battery storage systems are expected to remain among the cheapest and fastest-to-deploy options, even as tax credits are deleted.
• By 2050, renewables are forecasted to meet more than half of total global electricity demand.

Already, local governments across the US had been setting and making progress toward clean energy goals. An approach that is working is called “buyer-led aggregated procurement.” Such procurement works when two or more local governments or other stakeholders join together in a gestalt — merging their buying power and using that increased value to purchase renewable electricity. Such cooperation can lead to larger deals and better prices, says the World Resources Institute.

As an example, US cities and local institutions in Massachusetts and Pennsylvania signed contracts for a combined 430 MW of new renewable energy.

Clean Energy Results Don’t Lie

A recent NREL report describes how life cycle assessments can help quantify environmental burdens from “cradle to grave” and facilitate more-consistent comparisons of energy technologies. It turns out that life cycle GHG emissions from renewable electricity generation technologies are generally less than from those from fossil fuel-based technologies.

Australia and its first climate risk assessment report weighed climate risks and ended up identifying areas where renewable energy projects can be developed with minimal impact on Australia’s threatened wildlife and ecosystems. The report highlights an urgent need for strong 2035 targets, turning off fossil fuels, and turning on renewables. The National Assessment shows where and how Australia can add renewables for people and nature and builds on earlier work by conservation groups.

As Jack Nilles, a scholar on the impacts of information technology on society, writes this week, “The fossil fuel industry has bought our government in order to capture the entire energy market.” Trump 2.0 has succumbed to great influence from the fossil fuel industry, Nilles explains, to routinely discard “government attempts to produce and perfect alternative energy sources in order to favor fossil fuels.” Should such “stupid moves” continue, the physics behind increasing levels of greenhouse gases will “ultimately by making Earth unfit for human life as well as other lifeforms.” Can’t somebody in Australia talk sense to the Donald?

Resources

• “AAA fuel prices.” AAA.
• “After the strike: The danger of war in Iran.” Stephanie T. Williams. Brookings. March 2, 2026.
• “Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment.” Australian Government. 2025.
• “China for first time promises to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions.” Somini Sengupta. New York Times. September 24, 2025.
• “Electric power monthly: Data for December 2025.” US Energy Information Administration. February 24, 2026.
• “Greenhouse gas reductions driven by vehicle electrification across powertrains, classes, locations, and use patterns.” E. Smith, et al. Environmental Science and Technology. 2025.
• “Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation: Update.” NREL.
• “Navigating a new energy investment paradigm.” Ray Cai. Center for Strategic and International Studies. November 2025.
• “The petrowars versus global warming: In the long run, Mother Nature always rules.” Jack Nilles. Substack. March 2, 2026.
• “US cities and towns take innovative approach to renewable energy.” World Resources Institute. March 3, 2026.
• “US renewables hit record high despite Trump pushback.” Natasha Bracken. Yahoo! finance. March 3, 2026.
• “What the war With Iran means for renewable energy deployment.” Laura Millan, et al. Bloomberg. March 2, 2026.