How Are Prices of Gas & Diesel in ASEAN, and Where Do We Go From Here?

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I just read Zach’s “Are Gas Prices Going Up?” and it was a curious coincidence that I had just finished this conversation with my uncle, who is from New York. An accountant and financier by trade, he made the postulation that the average increase would be between $0.27 to $0.35 per gallon.

And I replied that’s still higher than the price has gone up (at the time of this writing), which is about P15-16 (~$.10) per liter. I did not thinking that I’d soon be paying as much as P80 per liter (~$1.40 for diesel) in the Philippines. That’s $5.25 per gallon stateside.

I was already working on a story about the possible gas price hikes in my part of the world and communicated with my peers from the ASEAN Energy Center. As the rising fuel prices are again testing Southeast Asia’s economic nerves, my only contribution is to make a comparison of gasoline and diesel prices across the region.

At present, gasoline prices in Southeast Asia span a wide range. Singapore remains the most expensive market in the region, with gasoline at roughly P158 per liter ($2.84/L) due to high fuel taxes and strict vehicle demand management policies. Cambodia follows at about P64 per liter ($1.16/L). Vietnam averages around P57 per liter ($1.03/L), while both the Philippines and Thailand sit close to P55 per liter ($0.98/L). At the other end of the spectrum are Indonesia and Malaysia, where extensive subsidies keep gasoline prices near P33 per liter ($0.60/L) and ₱28 per liter ($0.51/L) respectively.

Diesel prices follow a similar pattern but carry greater economic importance. In Singapore, diesel currently averages about ₱139 per liter ($2.50/L). Cambodia’s diesel price is roughly ₱58 per liter ($1.05/L), while Vietnam averages about ₱55 per liter ($0.99/L). In the Philippines, diesel is approximately ₱52 per liter ($0.93/L), slightly cheaper than gasoline but still among the higher diesel prices in mainland Southeast Asia. Thailand’s diesel is close to ₱50 per liter ($0.90/L). Subsidized markets again stand apart: Indonesia’s diesel averages around ₱29 per liter ($0.52/L) and Malaysia maintains diesel at about ₱26 per liter ($0.46/L) through government price controls.

I know that in North America fuel isn’t subsidized. But demand doesn’t determine pricing, supply does (so much for the law of supply and demand). But in the ASEAN region, there are countries that allow prices to move with global markets, there is one country that control the prices and manages it quite well, and there are those that shield consumers through heavy subsidies. Let’s break it down.

Let’s start with the country I am most familiar with. The Philippines is one of the most market-driven fuel systems in Southeast Asia. Under the Oil Deregulation Law, pump prices largely reflect international crude costs, shipping, refining margins, and the peso-dollar exchange rate. Taxes also play a role, particularly excise taxes introduced under the TRAIN law. Because the country imports most of its crude and refined products and maintains minimal subsidies, Philippine fuel prices respond quickly to movements in global oil markets. This is particularly painful when one considers that almost all the on-ground public transportation, especially the vintage, smoke-spewing, diesel burning jeepneys. Price hikes on diesel put particularly huge stresses on public transportation. There isn’t any way Philippines authorities prioritize keeping diesel prices lower than gasoline increases even if diesel costs feed directly into logistics and food prices.

Singapore sits at the top of the regional price spectrum largely because fuel is deliberately taxed as part of its transport policy. The city-state discourages private vehicle ownership through a combination of high fuel duties, electronic road pricing, and strict vehicle quotas. According to sources at from the Singapore International Energy Week (SIEW), the real reason gasoline taxes are significant is because they are made significant, to discourage private car ownership. That also forces the government to operate its public transport really well. It also imports all of its crude and refined products despite being one of the world’s largest refining hubs, which also allows it to export petroleum products. Since there are no consumer fuel subsidies (which they can provide easily), gasoline prices exceed $2.80 per liter.

Cambodia’s relatively high prices stem from structural limitations in its energy infrastructure. The country has very limited domestic refining capacity and relies heavily on imported refined fuels. Logistics costs—transporting fuel through ports and inland distribution networks—raise retail prices. Cambodia also does not maintain large fuel subsidies, meaning global oil price movements translate quickly into pump price increases.

Vietnam operates a hybrid pricing system that places it in the middle of ASEAN price levels. The government adjusts retail fuel prices periodically based on global oil benchmarks but uses a stabilization fund to soften large swings. Vietnam also has domestic refining capacity at the Dung Quat and Nghi Son refineries, which provides some supply security. However, the country still imports a substantial portion of refined fuels, keeping prices tied to global market conditions. This kind of thinking has given rise to more EVs in Vietnam. Why? The economic benefit tends to favor commercial and transport sectors indirectly, because diesel, which powers trucks, buses, and agricultural machinery, is often the fuel most sensitive to price stabilization decisions. Even though the stabilization fund technically covers both fuels, policy decisions around its use often aim to limit inflationary pressure from freight and public transport. (Vietnam deserves a story on its own.)

Thailand’s pricing system is somewhat moderated by a government-managed Oil Fuel Fund. This mechanism allows authorities to temporarily subsidize certain fuels—especially diesel—to stabilize transport and logistics costs. While gasoline prices still reflect global market trends, the fund often cushions sudden spikes. Thailand also has domestic refining capacity and a relatively diversified supply chain, which helps moderate volatility.

Indonesia’s comparatively low pump prices are the result of a long-standing subsidy regime. The government sets retail prices for several fuels through state energy company Pertamina and absorbs much of the difference when global oil prices rise. Indonesia is also a crude oil producer, though production has declined over the years. Maintaining affordable fuel prices is politically important in a country with vast geography and heavy dependence on road transport.

Malaysia maintains some of the lowest fuel prices in the region because of targeted subsidies and domestic oil production through its national oil company, Petronas. Retail prices for RON95 gasoline and diesel are controlled by the government, which adjusts subsidies to keep prices stable. Malaysia’s status as a net exporter of petroleum products allows the government greater flexibility in maintaining these subsidies compared with fully import-dependent countries.

The comparison highlights a structural split in ASEAN’s fuel economy. Countries such as the Philippines, Vietnam and Thailand allow domestic fuel prices to track global oil markets more closely. When crude prices rise, pump prices in these markets adjust quickly. By contrast, Malaysia and Indonesia rely on subsidies and price controls to stabilize retail fuel prices, effectively shifting the cost of volatility from consumers to government budgets.

Early market signals suggest another round of increases next week if global crude prices remain in the $95–$105 per barrel range. In the Philippines, gasoline could rise from roughly ₱55 per liter ($0.98/L) to around ₱61–₱65 per liter ($1.09–$1.16/L). Diesel may climb from about ₱52 per liter ($0.93/L) to roughly ₱57–₱60 per liter ($1.02–$1.08/L). Should Brent crude move deeper into the $100–$120 range, analysts expect pump prices across market-driven ASEAN economies to climb further, potentially pushing Philippine gasoline toward the mid-$1.20 per liter range and diesel close to $1.10 per liter.

Vietnam and Thailand are likely to see more moderate adjustments. Vietnam’s gasoline could move toward ₱61–₱64 per liter ($1.10–$1.15/L), while diesel may approach ₱58 per liter ($1.05/L). Thailand’s gasoline could rise to around ₱58–₱61 per liter ($1.03–$1.08/L), with diesel edging closer to ₱53 per liter ($0.95/L).

Subsidized markets will likely remain relatively stable. Indonesia’s gasoline may stay around ₱33–₱35 per liter ($0.60–$0.63/L) and diesel near ₱29–₱31 per liter ($0.52–$0.55/L). Malaysia’s government price controls are expected to keep gasoline around ₱28 per liter ($0.51/L) and diesel near ₱26 per liter ($0.46/L).

The divergence illustrates how Southeast Asia has effectively split into two fuel-pricing systems. Market-driven economies—including the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Singapore—experience immediate price swings tied to global oil markets. Subsidized systems such as Malaysia and Indonesia shield consumers at the pump but face growing fiscal pressure when oil prices climb.

As global oil markets remain sensitive to geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions, Southeast Asia’s motorists—and its transport sector—may soon face another round of adjustments at the pump. In the region’s evolving energy landscape, diesel may ultimately prove to be the more consequential fuel to watch.