Based on the latest Bitcoin price analysis, more than 71% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply now sits in profit. Why does this number matter? It’s closing in on the 74.7% historical mean that Bitfinex says previously marked the handoff from bear market to bull market.
BTC price recovered to near $78,600 on Tuesday after slipping to an intraday low of $77,603, but it remained below the roughly $82,000 level the asset touched the previous week.
There is an important tension in Bitcoin price analysis setup. A rising share of profitable supply can be read as a sign of recovery, yet it also means more coins are sitting on paper gains near a price zone where sellers may emerge. The source material characterizes this as market structure rather than confirmation of a breakout.
Bitcoin is currently trading within a range that has recently extended from roughly $77,200 to $82,100.
With over 71% of $BTC supply in profit, we are close to reaching the important 74.7% mean.
Any move above it "has typically marked the transition from bear to bull markets". Bitfinex analysts tell @TheBlockCo.https://t.co/uHtuCWbN1s
— Bitfinex (@bitfinex) September 8, 2026
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Bitcoin Price Analysis: A Recovery That Hasn’t Cleared the Ceiling
Tuesday’s session illustrated how fragile the current bounce remains. BTC fell to $77,603 before recovering near $78,600 by late morning. The rebound brought price back toward the middle of its recent range rather than above the upper boundary established near $82,000.
The swing also coincided with substantial liquidations. Roughly $79 million in Bitcoin positions were liquidated, contributing to $264 million in total crypto liquidations. Long positions accounted for $187 million of that total. The move showed how quickly leveraged positioning can be affected during a relatively contained price swing.
Bitfinex places the historical mean for supply in profit at 74.7%. It says prior moves above that level have typically marked transitions from bear to bull markets. However, the same source cautions that profit supply is not a standalone bullish signal. The measure describes the distribution of unrealized gains across supply; it does not by itself establish that price has broken out of its range.
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Why the Same Price Level Now Carries More Profitable Supply
The shift becomes clearer when compared with May. According to Bitfinex, about 67% of the supply was in profit when BTC traded above $82,500 during its May consolidation. At comparable price levels now, the figure is above 71%. The short-term holder cost basis fell to $68,400 during the summer, reflecting accumulation at lower prices.
| Period | BTC Price Level | Supply in Profit |
|---|---|---|
| May consolidation | Above $82,500 | About 67% |
| Current comparable levels | Near the recent range | Above 71% |
| Bitfinex historical mean | Not applicable | 74.7% |
At identical nominal price levels, more coins therefore show gains on paper than they did during the May consolidation. Bitfinex says this creates a deeper pool of latent sell-side liquidity when the market tests previous local highs. That structure may help explain why attempts near $82,000 have attracted profit-taking rather than a sustained move higher.
The comparison does not determine whether the current recovery will continue or reverse. It does show that the composition of supply has changed: buyers who accumulated at lower levels may hold gains when BTC price returns to the upper end of the range. Their behavior at those levels remains central to the market’s near-term structure.
ETF Inflows Are the Bullish Counterweight, With Conditions Attached
If the larger base of profitable supply is a source of potential selling pressure, Bitcoin ETF inflows provide an offsetting demand signal. Data onchain reported $31.07 million in daily net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs and $698.42 million in seven-day inflows. Bitfinex also cited continued ETF demand and stablecoin supply growth as sources of market support.
Bitfinex noted that crypto market capitalization excluding Bitcoin, Ether, and stablecoins increased by $51.2 billion since the start of September and stood above its mid-August level. The measure indicates that capital conditions across the broader crypto market had improved over that period, even as Bitcoin remained inside its established range.
Those flows sit alongside a more restrictive macro backdrop. August payrolls increased by 162,000, above the 53,000 consensus estimate cited in the source material. The two-year Treasury yield was above 4.34%, keeping short-term rates in focus. The August Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index reports were due following this data, and a hotter inflation reading could strengthen the case for tighter policy.
Higher yields and tighter policy expectations can weigh on risk assets, including Bitcoin, even when ETF flows remain positive. Bitfinex framed the key question as whether investors would continue buying through the Treasury buyback and incoming inflation data. In that view, sustained buying would indicate that policy rates were less of a binding constraint, while weaker flows around those events would point in the other direction.
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