DR Congo Extends Cobalt Export Ban by Three Months to Gain Pricing Leverage

In February 2025, the Democratic Republic of Congo—the world’s largest producer of cobalt—imposed a four-month ban on cobalt exports after global prices slumped to nearly US $10/lb, the lowest in nine years. On June 21, the National Authority for Regulation and Control of Strategic Mineral Substances (ARECOMS) announced an extension: the ban will continue through September 2025 due to persistently high cobalt stocks.

Purpose: Boosting Price & Revenues

The primary goal is clear—to convert DRC’s dominant supply position (70–80% of global output) into pricing clout. With cobalt desperately needed for EV batteries, Kinshasa hopes restricted exports will pressure global stockpiles, elevate prices, and enhance government income through taxes and royalties.

Market Response & Inventory Buffers

The first export suspension in February briefly spiked cobalt prices. However, the current extension has produced a more muted reaction due to oversupply and abundant inventory in China and elsewhere—estimated to cover 8–10 months of demand. Chinese refiners continue to import, with over 50,000 metric tons arriving in March and April despite the ban.

Operational Challenges & Industry Dynamics

Cobalt mining in the DRC is a byproduct of copper operations—any limitation on cobalt would also suppress lucrative copper yields, currently near US $9,600–9,900 per ton. This link hampers the country’s ability to enforce tighter cobalt output controls. Instead, authorities are exploring export quotas as a more precise instrument—though these come with operational and administrative hurdles.

Industry Reactions

Major cobalt miners in the DRC are split:

• Glencore, the world’s second-largest cobalt miner, supports introducing quotas.

• CMOC Group, which overtook Glencore as the top cobalt producer in 2024, advocates lifting the ban, warning that prolonged constraints may disrupt the supply chain.

Looking Ahead: Strategy & Implications

• Decision timeline: ARECOMS has promised a definitive update—whether to lift, modify, or extend the ban—before September.

• Potential quota model: Inspired by Indonesia’s approach in nickel and copper, the DRC may link exports to downstream investment—requiring mining companies to build more local refining capacity.

• Global dynamics: While reduced exports could tighten supply by late Q3 or Q4, the timing depends heavily on clearing existing inventories and supply chain lag, which has roughly a 90‑day lead time to China.

• Demand trends: Electric vehicle makers are increasingly turning to low‑ or zero‑cobalt battery chemistries, like lithium‑iron‑phosphate (LFP), which may reduce long‑term cobalt demand.

The DRC’s extension of the cobalt export ban underscores its ambition to influence global cobalt prices and assert itself in the clean‑energy supply chain. But with substantial inventories buffering the market, entwined copper‑cobalt production dynamics, and shifting technology trends in battery chemistry, Kinshasa’s ability to wield sustained pricing power remains uncertain.