Solar Gets Cheaper, Systems Get Bigger: EnergySage Report Maps A Shifting Market

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The 20th edition of EnergySage’s Solar & Storage Marketplace Report offers a comprehensive look at the residential solar and storage sector in the US during a turbulent 2024. Drawing from thousands of quotes submitted by vetted installers through EnergySage’s platform, the report tracks real-time market trends across pricing, equipment preferences, financing, and consumer behavior. For industry professionals already fluent in solar and energy storage dynamics, the 2024 findings paint a nuanced picture of contraction, innovation, and regional variability.

Market Contraction Amid Macroeconomic Pressure

Residential solar installations declined sharply in 2024, dropping 31% year-over-year according to Wood Mackenzie. This contraction, following years of robust growth, was driven by high interest rates, subdued electricity price inflation, and significant policy changes — most notably California’s Net Billing Tariff (NBT), which reduced export compensation for solar-only systems. Despite this slowdown, EnergySage data suggests consumer interest in clean energy remains strong, especially when storage is involved.

Record Low Prices For Solar & Storage

For the third consecutive six-month period, the median quoted solar price dropped, reaching an all-time low of $2.50/W in H2 2024. Quotes for solar-only systems fell to $2.65/W, while solar-plus-storage quotes dipped even further to $2.40/W — a 7.3% drop from H1 2024. Battery prices also hit historic lows, with the median quoted storage price landing just below $1,000/kWh for the first time. This pricing shift is largely due to falling equipment costs (e.g., a 30% YoY drop in panel prices per Wood Mackenzie), intensified installer competition, and growing market adoption of integrated solutions like Tesla’s Powerwall 3.

“Heading into 2025, solar and battery prices had never been lower on the EnergySage Marketplace, and for homeowners, that means more affordable and accessible clean energy solutions. This creates a compelling record-low benchmark to measure against as we begin to see the effects of shifting policies and tariffs take hold this year.” — Emily Walker, Director of Content and Insights at EnergySage

Tesla’s Powerwall 3 Redefines Market Dynamics

The Powerwall 3’s launch disrupted both storage and inverter segments. With an integrated hybrid inverter, Tesla’s share of the storage market soared to 63% — the highest for any brand in EnergySage history — and made Tesla the second-most quoted inverter provider. The national battery attachment rate reached 45% in H2 2024, also a record high, reflecting the shifting economics and value propositions under policies like California’s NBT. Tesla’s dominance drove overall price reductions, but also raised concerns about future supply shortages and reputational risks stemming from brand controversies, both of which may affect 2025 trends.

“Tesla’s emerging dominance in both storage and inverter quotes reflects the market’s appetite for integrated, all-in-one solutions. But as concerns around availability and brand sentiment surface, we’re watching closely to see whether this momentum holds or if consumer backlash will begin to shift installer and homeowner preferences.” — Charlie Hadlow, President and COO of EnergySage

Shifts In Equipment: More Power, Fewer Choices

The industry continues to pivot to higher-wattage panels: in H2 2024, 33% of quotes featured modules rated over 450 W, up from just 1% a year earlier. Only 14% of quotes included modules below 400 W, compared to 81% in H2 2023. This shift is attributed to improved module efficiencies, larger form factors, and evolving installer preferences. REC emerged as the most quoted panel brand (46% of quotes), overtaking Qcells. On the inverter front, Enphase retained the top spot but lost significant share (down to 53% from 73% in H1), mainly due to Tesla’s gain.

Interestingly, installer brand loyalty continues to tighten in panel selection, as 41% of installers offered only one panel brand in H2 2024. However, inverter diversity grew, with fewer installers exclusively offering one brand, reflecting a shift in product strategy driven by hybrid systems and battery integration.

Geographic Divergence In Price & System Size

State-level differences in pricing and system characteristics were stark:

• Arizona retained the lowest median solar price at $1.99/W, while Tennessee topped the list at $3.35/W — a spread of $15,640 on an 11.5 kW system.
• The top solar states — California, Florida, and Texas — had median prices at least $0.25/W below the national median, largely due to high battery attachment rates and Tesla’s market penetration.
• System sizes increased across all top 10 states, averaging 6.5% growth from H1 to H2. States with high electricity consumption, like Texas and Florida, quoted the largest systems (~14 kW), reflecting rising home electrification and climate-driven energy needs.

Financing: A Shift Toward Low-Fee Loan Structures

High interest rates dulled demand for solar loans, dropping to 39% of installations nationally, but spurred a shift in loan structure preferences. Low-fee, higher-interest loans (≤3% fees) comprised 47% of EnergySage quotes in H2, up from 40% in H1. Installers increasingly favor lenders like Climate First Bank, Atmos Financial, and Credit Human for offering consumer-friendly loan terms. The most common financing product in H2 was a 20-year loan at 8.49%, signaling that despite high rates, buyers still prioritize long-term affordability and early payoff options.

Storage Adoption Soars Beyond California

Battery interest reached 73% of shoppers in H2 2024, and 45% moved forward with a purchase, which was more than double the 22% attachment rate a year earlier. While California’s policy changes were a major catalyst (with its attachment rate reaching 79%), other states followed suit due to growing grid instability, shifting net metering, and lower battery prices. Tesla was the most quoted battery brand in all 10 top storage states, even in markets where Enphase had previously dominated. Storage sizes normalized at 13.5 kWh, but pricing and adoption were heavily influenced by regional factors.

Heat Pumps: A Complementary Trend

EnergySage also reported on its Heat Pump Marketplace, highlighting growing electrification synergies. Heat pump costs varied significantly by state and system size, with ductless systems being more cost-effective in older housing stock markets like Massachusetts. System costs rose sharply above 5 tons, reflecting equipment and labor inefficiencies.

Outlook For 2025

The report emphasizes several factors that could influence the 2025 landscape:

• Tariff uncertainties affecting module supply chains and inverter availability
• Possible backlash against dominant brands (notably Tesla)
• The expanding influence of integrated energy solutions (solar, storage, EVs, HVAC)
• Continued evolution of state policies, especially around net metering and energy resilience

While 2024 marked a setback in installed capacity, the structural indicators, such as cost declines, consumer interest, and technology improvements, suggest a resilient path forward.

“The data in this report tells a broader story about the industry’s evolution. From the rise in storage adoption to the shift toward higher-efficiency equipment and lower costs, we’re seeing homeowners take greater control over their energy choices.” — Charlie Hadlow

The full Solar & Storage Marketplace Report 2025 is available from EnergySage.