Will the 3-Row Tesla Model Y L Sell Well in the USA?

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The first thing you see now when you go to the Tesla webpage for the Model Y is the new Model Y L Premium. This is the new three-row Model Y first launched in China. It is now being built and sold in the United States to try to boost sales here. Even with Tesla sales rebounded strongly in Europe last quarter, they were reportedly down by about 20% year over year in the US — even with high gas prices from the war on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz closure! Clearly, Tesla needs a boost in the US market.

The first image on an automatic slideshow shows the starting price for the Tesla Model Y L Premium being $61,990. (It always make me chuckle and shake my head a little that Tesla uses those $990 endings on prices since Elon Musk said years ago he hated that kind of pricing and that Tesla would only use clear flat pricing … like $62,000 instead of $61,990. Anyway, clearly, this little trick gets more people to buy cars, and Tesla has to do all it can today to sell cars.)

But the question is, how many people will buy the Tesla Model Y L in the USA?

No one knows. These are some factors to consider that I think could be significant when trying to answer this question:

• Most people who wanted a Tesla Model Y already got one.
• People who love their Tesla but would prefer three rows and more space will trade in their cars for the new Model Y L.
• Many Americans do want three rows of seats now, so this model could be popular.
• However, it’s not competing in the market of the Santa Fe, which starts at about $35,000, not $62,000. So, how many will buy it?
• There are also more premium and larger three-row SUVs from Cadillac, etc. There are ones like the Toyota Grand Highlander and Lexus TX. And there are even electric ones like the Hyundai IONIQ 9 and Kia EV9.
• “Full Self Driving” is a potential differentiator, but that’s not driving a lot of sales at the moment.

All things considered, it’s very hard to know if the Model Y L will give Tesla a significant boost or barely any at all. I’m more pessimistic about it than some of my colleagues who think it will be very popular in the US. My guess is there are some loyal Tesla owners who trade in their Model Y or Model 3 for one, but then the market will be quite limited at this price. That said, if FSD provides true hands-free, eyes-off driving at some point, I could see it getting very popular. But let’s wait and see if that happens….

What do you think?